Holy CRAP ORLANDO IS COVERING HUGE!

WTF!!!! I tune back in and Orlando is up by 3 with 3 left in the 4th!!!!

Cleveland -9 at home over Orlando

So I threw down 220 to win 200 on the Cavs at home vs the Magic. I won't pretend that I did a lot of analysis on this game. I just thought that the cavs would kick some ass at game 1 at home. So far it's Cle 30 Orl 17 with a little over a minute left in the first.

Lebron is on fire. He had an in catch in transition for a monster dunk, then followed up with a shot block, then a 3 all inside of a minute.

I've been playing Mafia Wars on face book as this game has been going on, and signed up for a Netflix trial to get some more Godfather points. I was thinking of downloading a movie to watch while I have the game on in the background, but The Ultimate Fighter is going to be on soon so that might just be an overload.

First quarter 33 to 19 Cleveland. Keep it up Cavs!

First night back, Nuggets cover

Well I'm catching the ESPN highlights of the Nuggets Lakers game, they lost but covered the spread. Although the Nuggets led most of the way it was Kobe FTW. The Nuggets starters had 68 points, 39 of which came from Melo. Kobe had 40 points and 6 rebounds. From the highlights it looks like it was a pretty sick match up between those 2 guys especially battling in the low post.

I think I'm going to have to stick to the 2nd half line betting. We've got Orlando vs Cleveland tonight with Cleveland coming in as 8.5 point favorites.

Back from hiatus

I've been up to a lot of shit lately but I'm back now and there's going to be some changes. For one thing, we're not in football season so I'm going to bet on other things and I'm also going to get off topic a lot, like how I'm glad Burger King finally stopped playing those damn Sir Spongebob Mix A lot commercials all the damn time. Holy crap that was annoying.

I've placed a lot of bets this year but my best ones lately were Pacquiao over Hatton by KO for 150, and the Rockets to cover the 2nd half spread in Game 6 against the Lakers for 400. I gave half of that back in game 7 but fuck it, that's why I just threw down 220 to win 200 on the Nuggets to cover +5 on the 2nd half against the Lakers.

Holy crap I'm tired. I drank for 13 hours straight this weekend, it's Tuesday and I'm still hurting. More stuff later bitches, go Nuggets!

I'm Back!

Well I obviously have not been posting for the last 7 months, but things got so bad towards the end of the season that I really lost the motivation to post. Last season was just rough across the board. Stats did not matter, because anyone could beat anyone. Last year was a year where Michigan lost to a double A, USC lost to Stanford at the Colesium, Kansas made it to a BCS game, and so on.

I have yet to crunch the numbers and put some serious time into studying teams, to be honest I've been real busy. I'm probably going to be a bit more casual in my game watching and study this year because I'm about to have a whole lot of things going on in short order, but I will continue to blog my picks and put some commentary here.

I'll tell you about some bets that did go right for me though. During March Madness I was somewhere on the order of 90%+ right on my bets. Basically, I would just bet the second half lines during halftime and bet my sentiment. I don't think that the odds makers were watching the game when they set the lines. Hopefully that bet will still be there next weekend.

My best bet, however, was on the Belmont Stakes. I put 50 bucks on every horse other than Big Brown. Half the horses in the field had 30 - 1 odds or better, which meant that I had a 50% chance of making 30 - 1 on my cash. I had a 1 out of, I think 8, chance of a complete loss and a 1 out of 8 chance of only being down 20%. Everything else was pure profit. I netted out about 1500 bucks from that, which helped me pay some credit card debt.

Parenthetically, the OTB is quite possibly lower on the social ladder than the bus station. My God, the OTB crowd was just disgusting. I mean, they looked exactly like the sketch balls you see on the news who get caught by Chris Hanson trying to have an illicit rendezvous with a 13 year old. Needless to say, I couldn't watch the game there, I had to go to one of my favorite bars down the street, Overlook Lounge, to watch it. After the win I bought the people around me a round of shots and gave the bartender a 20 dollar tip. When you're lucky like that, it's imperative that you spread the wealth.

Like I said, I'm going to be pretty busy this season. I am planning on launching my own company this year, which will take up a big chunk of my time and money. I also just got involved in a pretty intensive project at my day job, which will seriously cut into my screwing around time at work. The coolest thing I've gotten involved with lately has been mixed martial arts training. I've been doing that since January. It's a lot better than just going to the gym to lift weights and doing cardio to get cut. There are literally guys who are 19 years old and weigh 140 pounds that could wail on me despite the fact that I'm pushing 190, bench 250 and squat probably around 400. That shit does not matter when you're fighting a guy who trains every day on how to deliver a combination that ends with an uppercut to your chin or could grab a heel hook and break your foot.

Next weekend I am also moving from the Upper East Side in Manhattan, out to a place right near Journal Square in Jersey City, New Jersey. I've been renting in Manhattan for the last 8 years, and its money down the toilet and properties are too high for me to actually purchase anything any time soon. The hour long door to door commute is going to suck, but I figure that it will give me some time to read up on teams.

Anyway you cut it though, I'm excited about the season. I am thinking of getting a 360 just so I can play NCAA 2009 once I get settled into my new place.

WVU over Lou -16

No problem, the Mountain Men win by at least 30 points. Louisville couldn't stop a basket of kittens. WVU has a good passing defense and an awesome rushing game. Think steamroller over a crate of marshmellow peeps.

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Didn't like the play calling on that first drive. First call, pass to the wideout on a hitch and go. Overthrown. Next play, hand off to Slayton for a lateral run for a loss. Chop block called. Drop back pass deep almost picked.

Establish the ground game damnit!

Adventures in betting the Pats Colts game...

Last Monday I decided to throw down huge on the Pats to cover a 5.5 point line at Indianapolis, because I was confident that they would win the game by at least 10 points. In metaphorical terms, I bet everything I had except for the kitchen sink, which I always keep in reserve in the event of total catastrophe.

Being the degenerate gambler that I am, it was nearly impossible for me to go the entire week without some wagering. I got the NBA preview for the first week of NBA games last week, and itching to scratch the gambling bug I threw down some small bets on the Rockets vs Jazz game. I took the Rockets +4, because they are my boys, and ended up winning. The next day, Friday, I threw down a couple of bets and lost both. I thought about it, and after struggling to resist the urge to do so, reloaded my account for the Saturday games.

The deal I made with myself, was that I would limit it to small bets across the board in the early afternoon and see how I did.

I took Purdue +8.5 against Penn State, because PSU had disappointed me so many times this season. WIN. Speaking of PSU disappointment, I watched the PSU Ohio State game the weekend before and thought that Ohio State looked tremendously dominant and took them -16 at home against Wisconsin, who has looked weak all season. WIN. Vanderbilt at Florida, I took Vandy as a sentimental underdog at +14.5 and they were dealt with quickly and decisively by a pumped up Florida offense. Next, I took Kansas -20 at home against Nebraska in what was the biggest loss in Nebraska history. Seriously, 76 points? That shit was nearly a basketball game. I wish that I bet more on that one. I also took LSU to beat Bama by 7, and that was a push. The main events were in the evening. I took Oklahoma to demolish ATM, and Mizoo to beat Colorado on the road. The sum of my bet was about 3/4's the size of my reload deposit, so these were sizeable positions. Both of these positions hit and as you can guess, I went out and got completely smashed.

With those big wins under my belt, I still could not help but feel as if the gambling gods were testing me, building up my pride in order to stike it down at its apex to remind me that life can be arbitrary and to not confuse skill for good fortune.

The next day I met up with some friends to watch the NFL games at a seedy downtown bar, which had a 21 dollar all you can eat and drink special, called Down the Hatch. My usual routine had been to watch the games a seedy sport bar across the street from my apartment, and to be honest I was slightly uncomfortable straying from my habitual Sunday routine. But, with all you can eat wings and all you can drink pitchers I had to do it for this game.

From a pure football watching perspective, this had to be one of the best games that I have watched in years. It was a fucking fist fight. Brady got sacked on the first play of his first posession, when the hell does that ever happen? And then prior to that, Vinatiery missed a chip shot field goal? WTF!!! Addai was just a rumbling monster, catching Bruschi out of position, slipping Seau and Vrabel's tackles, and seemingly running inside and outside at will. Randy Moss had a 1 handed circus catch for a key posession, and was using what seemed to be a mental GPS tracking system to catch Brady's laser accurate passes. Sure, the game would have been different had Harrison been on the field rather than on the sideline, but I would wager that the Pats would have adjusted.

There was only one thing that was seriously fucked up about this game, and it was the 10 penalties for 146 yards, which included 2 massive pass interference calls that led to scores. I have no problem with those calls being made, as long as they were even handed in their decisions. I have to say that there was almost a concious effort to penalize the Pats. The PI's did not look like they were severe enough to call, and they had a dramatic effect on the game.

Within the last 3 minutes of the 4th quarter I started to feel the panic hit me. I was about to lose the equivalent of half a month's rent on this game. I needed for the Colts to turn the ball over for a TD, or turn the ball over without taking much time off of the clock. Unfortunately, the turnover was a Manning fumble which led to the Pats milking the remaining time off of the clock rather than risking a turnover on a completely unecessary field goal. I stood their in the bar, 11 beers deep, in disbelief 5 times as severe in proportion to that of the Pat haters who cheered the Colts on.

I can almost feel the collective disbelief of the millions of Pats backers out there that just lost huge on this game. It was as if a million voices cried out at once...and then .... silence..

http://www.covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=153937

If it were not for my account reload and wins on Saturday, it would have all ended for me that day. Fortunately my appetite for risk had help me offset my loss, and set me up for account repair, which is the arduous and tedious task of betting a series of games to build my bankroll up to something worth doubling down on.

Yesterday, the Steelers brought me back to nearly even. Thank you Gambling Gods! I'll take anything I can get.

Friday Update

Well as you might have noticed, I've been running behind in my updates. Last week I took WVU to cover -3.5 at Rutgers, and won big time. That bet was offset by my loss on Texas covering -16 against Nebraska at home. Texas won a crappy game by 3 points. I am no longer betting on Texas this season as they have been incredibly inconsistent. They could lose to Oklahoma State tomorrow, and at the same time they could blow OSU out. Who knows, I'm not going to place that bet. My last bet of last Saturday was USF to cover a 6 point win against U Conn, and USF straight up lost. That put me behind for the day, so what do you think I did? I took everything that I had left and piled it onto the Pats to cover 16.5 points against the Skins. You couldn't watch a single sports channel this week without hearing commentary about the Pats running up the score. Those guys are unstoppable in my view, and I bet nearly everything on Monday night on the Pats so I could get in at the 5.5 point line. Ballsy? Yes.

My rationale is that the Colts played close games against 2 AFC South opponents, the Texans and the Titans, and in fact did not cover. Look at New England on the other hand, they manhandled every team that they played this year including the Cowboys, who are definitely better than the Texans or the Titans.

Naysayers will start of by brining up the fact that the Colts have won the last 3 meetings and have a the number 1 passing defense and the number 3 defense in points allowed. My answer is that Colts have the number 1 passing offense and the number 1 offense in points scored. Add to the fact that this year they have Adalius Thomas to add to the blitz package, Vrabel is just kicking ass right now, and Belicheck has Manning's number when he has the personnel in place. I just have a strong feeling like we're going to see a lot of the Manning face on Sunday.

On Monday night I took a little bet on the Packers to cover since Farve is a MNFB hero, and I won that one. Last night night I put a little bet on G Tech to cover -2.5 at home, simply because I wanted to fade the Thursday night consensus. Unfortunately, their QB decided to throw 2 picks in the first half and one of their receivers coughed up the ball inside their own 30. By the 3rd quarter Va Tech was up by 21 so I switched over to the Rockets Jazz game. You read that, I am betting NBA basketball now!!!! I put a half sized position on the Rockets to cover +4 on the road, and they straight up won by 11, thereby cutting my loss for the night in half.

I'm running near empty on my account since I have money tied up on the Pats/Colts game. I'm trying to decide whether to add a bit more or to just be content with small college bets tomorrow.

Gameday update -- Rutgers vs WVU

So it sounds like Teel has a bum hand ... busted ligament in his right thumb. That hurts when you take the snaps, and obviously effects throwing power and accuracy. In a run vs run game I vote for WVU, which I already have, to win big.


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My God, it's raining hardcore in Piscatoway. Teel was doing a good job in making the intermediate passes, though the deep passes were sailing on him, but Tiquon has already dropped 2 passes. It's turning into a run vs run game, and WVU predicably scored. Slayton went left, which drew pursuit, but cut back to the right and everyone fell down as he ran back to score. Good job, so far so good.

Nebraska at Texas

Nebraska at Texas(16) 3:30 PM ET Record Consensus Odds
NEB 4-4 (1-1 V) 52.69 % 58
TEXAS 6-2 (3-2 H) 47.31 % -20.5

Last week Texas cost me over half of my bankroll in a pathetic game at Baylor. The key components to this non cover was the crappy offense, which simply was not clicking. Colt threw 2 picks, and McGee and Charles barely ran for over 100 yards combined! The passing game sucked, we had no power running game to fall back to, and of course the offense was so predictible that even a 92 ranked defense could keep Texas to 3 points in the first quarter.

Fortunately, Nebraska is a 106 ranked defense, their season is in the crapper, and they are playing us in our house. They are 116th in rushing defense, which means that we don't even need a power running game to rock their world and Charles just needs to beat the outside man and hold on to the ball for a 20 yard run.

It isn't supposed to be windy tomorrow either, so between a solid running game and the 50-50 chance that Colt catches fire early in the first half, I like Texas to steamroll Nebraska by 5 touchdowns.